Ursula von der Leyen gained a second time period as president of the European Fee on the again of an bold record of guarantees for her subsequent 5 years.
However in securing sufficient assist within the European parliament on Thursday, she has stretched her government to-do record and raised expectations throughout the EU’s political spectrum on a bunch of points which have lengthy annoyed Brussels officers.
Mujtaba Rahman, of consultancy Eurasia Group, warned that von der Leyen could possibly be “setting herself up for failure” by providing commitments “that aren’t notably coherent” to safe the assist of a broad coalition.
Right here we assess her boldest pledges and most formidable political challenges for her 2024-29 time period:
Is a capital markets union attainable?
Von der Leyen on Thursday rebranded a long-promised push to create a capital markets union because the “European Financial savings and Investments Union” — however a brand new title doesn’t take away previous obstacles.
The arguments in favour are monumental. Integrating EU capital markets, a decade-old challenge, may unleash as much as €470bn in non-public funding yearly, von der Leyen estimated. That may create much-needed non-public sector money to assist fund sectors equivalent to defence, know-how and the inexperienced transition.
However resistance to pooling nationwide competence equivalent to market supervision and company tax and chapter guidelines has to this point proved unmovable.
There have been current makes an attempt to revive political urge for food, however it’s unclear how she plans to interrupt the impasse. Softer measures, equivalent to a pan-European funding product, may advance, whereas core points equivalent to additional EU centralised supervision of banking will stay contentious.
Can she construct a European defence union?
Other than making a devoted defence commissioner, von der Leyen additionally pledged to create “a single marketplace for defence” and customary tasks equivalent to a “European Air Protect”.
Few member states disagree with the necessity to pool sources given the large funding required after a long time of shrinking spending and the menace from Russia. However hardly any are prepared to delegate decisions over what gear to purchase, the place to fabricate it — or tips on how to pay for it.
France and Germany have rival concepts for pan-European air defence tasks; international locations need to defend their home arms producers for nationwide safety causes; and interoperability — nationwide armed forces’ capacity to work seamlessly with one another — has lengthy been a spotlight of Nato, with blended outcomes.
“There are some who’re maybe uncomfortable with the concept,” von der Leyen stated on Thursday. “However what we ought to be uncomfortable about are the threats to our safety.”
Will competitors guidelines be eased?
Von der Leyen has stated a revamp of competitors enforcement ought to give attention to “innovation and resilience”, feedback that reignited a long-standing debate over whether or not Europe ought to loosen up merger controls to permit bigger firms to blossom.
Her political pointers known as for a “new method to competitors coverage” that was “extra supportive of firms scaling up in international markets, whereas at all times guaranteeing a stage enjoying discipline”. The rules added: “This ought to be mirrored in the best way we assess mergers in order that innovation and resilience are totally taken into consideration.”
That would mark a giant coverage shift from the fee’s often-cited 2019 prohibition of the merger between Siemens and Alstom, which the German and French firms solid as a approach to create a European champion within the rail market.
However officers in Brussels are sceptical that the remarks, which included no dedication to laws, will result in a wholesale change in method. Any important transfer to ease constraints — a stance lengthy advocated by France and Germany — would face staunch opposition from pro-competition capitals looking for to guard small enterprise.
Huge member states together with France, Germany, Poland and Italy requested to revise the foundations in the beginning of von der Leyen’s first time period, solely to be confronted with opposition from 16 different capitals.
“I nonetheless wrestle to see which merger the EU blocked prior to now that prevented innovation,” stated a senior EU official.
Ought to the EU finances be linked to rule of regulation?
The fee president has pledged to make nationwide disbursements from the EU finances conditional on adherence to the rule of regulation and structural reforms, whereas extending situations equivalent to respect for democratic norms and basic rights to all EU funds.
“We are going to preserve a really clear precept in our finances: respecting the rule of regulation is a should for EU funds. On this finances, and sooner or later,” she stated.
The fee at the moment has the facility to withhold sure slices of EU money over rule-of-law breaches. That sparked confrontations with Poland and Hungary, however was seen as an efficient device to halt democratic backsliding.
Making use of nonetheless extra situations to EU funding will win assist from richer international locations that need tighter management over shared money, however is prone to be opposed by international locations that see such strikes as political blackmail and an over-reach from Brussels into home affairs.
Can Brussels assist in housing and psychological well being?
In June’s European elections, voters together with many younger adults turned to far-right events. They gained about 30 per cent assist and topped the polls in Italy, France and different international locations.
Centrist lawmakers together with these from von der Leyen’s personal European Individuals’s social gathering imagine the far proper efficiently linked housing shortages to elevated migration, interesting to 20-somethings who can’t afford to go away their dad and mom’ houses.
Iratxe García Pérez, the Socialist chief in parliament, stated “entry to housing is an important want of our residents” and known as for €50bn of annual EU funding. However housing stays beneath the management of nationwide and even regional governments, and analysts query how Brussels can unblock planning procedures in 27 international locations.
Von der Leyen additionally highlighted how extreme social media utilization was exacerbating a youth “psychological well being disaster”, saying she would deal with “extreme display time and addictive practices” and “will take motion towards the addictive design of some platforms”.
“We are going to deal with the plague of cyber bullying,” she added. However whereas Brussels has a task in tech regulation, regulation enforcement and display time guidelines are nationwide.